After the first six Formula 1 weekends of 2025, it’s evident that Max Verstappen can challenge McLaren in qualifying but struggles to keep up over race distance against the papaya cars. Verstappen’s ability to push the RB21 to its limits without worrying about tyre wear during qualifying has allowed him to secure pole positions in Suzuka, Jeddah, and Miami. On the other hand, McLaren’s MCL39 is harder to handle in qualifying due to front-axle unpredictability, leading to suboptimal laps in Q3 for Piastri and Norris.
McLaren shines during races by effectively managing tyre wear, highlighting their expertise in this aspect of F1. Data analysis supports the notion that McLaren performs better in race simulations than in single qualifying laps, as seen in Bahrain and Miami. Verstappen’s competitive edge against McLaren is most evident in races where specific track characteristics and low tyre wear play to Red Bull’s strengths.
However, reality checks in Bahrain and Miami have exposed Red Bull’s struggles with high temperatures and tyre wear, leading to significant deficits compared to McLaren. The team’s structural issues have come under scrutiny, especially with the tires overheating quickly in hot conditions. Red Bull’s performance variations across different tracks do not negate their underlying challenges, as demonstrated by their performances in Bahrain and Miami.
